Photovoltaic solar elevation of the municipal building, center of social services “Jose Villarreal”, Madrid (Spain) / Hanjin
In 2017, the solar energy sector demonstrated the highest pace of growth, and this trend is expected to persist for years.
The potential of the solar energy is enormous, while the continuous improvement of existing or emergence of radically new technologies decreases expenses for the production and installation of solar systems as well as improves their efficiency. In this article we’ll consider key factors allowing the solar energy to dominate the RES sector and perspectives of their development.
An increase of solar batteries power
In some regions of Australia, the distribution and storage of solar energy cost less than the use of traditional networks’ energy. Germany is the European leader of solar energy generation and storage with 80% share of the «solar» market. The rest of the market is divided between Great Britain, Italy, Austria and France.
Perspectives:
The price of the technology of energy storage decreases fast: in 2010 it cost $1’000, while today it costs around $300. According to the Bloomberg NEF research, by 2030 the price will decrease down to $120 per 1 kW. At the same time, it’s expected that the power output of all solar batteries will reach 16GW by 2020. At the same time, the number of household-based stations for the solar energy storage will increase up to 60’000. This is twice more than in 2016. Key drivers of these changes are not only the price of equipment but amendments of the legislation enabling the receipt of benefits from technologies of stationary energy storage as well.
Despite positive changes, the situation still requires improvement: the creation of local RES energy markets, equal and transparent conditions for market players (contracts, compensations, technical requirements).
Active digitalization of the sector
This is probably the main trend of the solar market which consists of the following components: big data analysis, internet of things, smart-monitoring, mobile technologies. Its application substantially decreases expenses for the installation and maintenance of the equipment, makes the system more flexible, encourages the emergence of new business models related to the management, demand for and storage of solar energy. Singapore and Australia are leading the digitalization of the solar energy market, while in Europe, Scandinavian countries are frontrunners.
What’s next for the solar power sector
During the next 5 years, the prosumers will get new opportunities for direct retail of extra generated energy to other consumers through online platforms of communal institutions or through the blockchain. Already, there are some examples of blockchain-based solutions for local energy markets – for instance, Power Ledger platform developed in Australia which enables tracking of any volume of energy from the moment of its generation to the moment of consumption.
According to the forecasts, solar energy will become part of the smart construction services package where the machine learning technology will be used in the process of the energy management. Energy saving systems, as well as smart sensory devices and household appliances, will also become more widespread.
The transition to Smart Microgrids will be also actively developing and thus will increase the profitability of the solar energy sector. The main impact of the digitalization will be felt in regions lacking access to the electricity: such communities will be initially able to engage in “smart” planning of the demand for energy with the help of the blockchain technology form the very beginning.
Professional maintenance of the solar energy facilities
This issue is very relevant for European countries with the developed «solar» market, as some of its facilities have already been functioning for decades. Maintenance of large SES is a separate, rapidly developing niche of the energy market. The number of professional brigades providing professional services increases. At the same time, the standardization of quality of such services remains an issue.
What are the forecasts?
Due to the active development of the solar energy sector in China, USA, India, and Japan, by 2021 there will be a need to maintain the solar infrastructure with the combined power of 500 GW. Consolidation of the market will be observed in Europe which will lead to its fragmentation and stretching of the gap in quality of provided services. Increasing competition, as well as a decrease in prices for solar power systems, can lead to a decline in the quality of services.
Digitalization of process can become one of the solutions. The receipt of data in real time, automation, application of mobile technologies and drones can lead to an increase in profit and decrease of expenses. Already now, the diagnostic maintenance based on permanent data monitoring allows to decrease the unproductive time of SES, while the technology of “digital twins” allows to create cloud analogs of components and systems which improve their functioning.
The Development of technologies and decrease of expenses
In 2016, the first purchase of solar energy for 3 cents per 1 kWh was documented. Such sharp decline of price is explained by the cheapening of the production cost of key components of solar systems, notably modules constituting the major part of the overall price – over 50% (according to 2016 data).
New technologies
Monocrystalline silicon wafers
During recent decades, cheap polycrystalline wafers dominated the market. Currently, they are actively displaced from the market by more effective and powerful monocrystalline analogs. It became possible thanks to the use of low-cost diamond wire-based technology of wafers cutting.
PERC (Passivated Emitter Rear Contact) solar panels
The new production technology allows to increase the efficiency of solar panels without any major expenses for the reconfiguration of the existing power stations. A lot of solar energy producers have already modernized their stations with the help of this tech.
Modules
Division of solar elements of the module in halves: this technology allows to substantially decrease the expenses for resistance caused by the decrease of the current rate, which increases the efficiency of the module for 5-10 kW.
Two-sided modules: the solar panel has two sides, thus it’s logical to use both of them. In order to do it, you need a specially shaped panel with transparent or glass lower surface. Such design increases the effectiveness of the module by 20%. Furthermore, the term of its use also increases significantly.
Solar systems
The increase of power. More and more suppliers propose modules and other components for solar systems with 1500 voltage. It’s a good solution for big plain roofs as well as industrial and communal buildings, which allows to decrease the number of breaker boxes and cables, facilitates the systems’ installation and maintenance, and demonstrates the considerable potential of decreasing prices of solar energy generation.
BIPV (Building Integrated Photovoltaics) solutions for households
Solar panels can be used in urban development replacing traditional construction materials. Tesla’s “solar roof” – an analog of metal tile, is a good example. This idea inspired construction and design companies all over the world making solar systems a part of modern architecture.
Green energy has long ago transformed into a successful business niche, attractive for investments. Thanks to new technologies, the price of solar power systems decreases. Thus, more and more countries join the implementation of large-scale projects, which, in its turn, stimulates the emergence of more advanced technologies of solar energy generation, transfer, and storage. That’s why the replacement of traditional sources of energy – gas, coal and, oil by its renewable analogs doesn’t seem to be a distant perspective anymore.