6 trends in the global economy that are clearly seen right now

The world economy is constantly developing and it depends on a number of factors that cannot always be foreseen. Therefore, long-term forecasts of global development are quite conventional. But there are clear trends that will impact the world economy in 2016. And almost all of them are directly related to Ukraine.

And we are talking not about the political influence. The volume of the US trade deficit is the largest in the world. This means that the United States imports goods much more than it exports. In January and February 2016, the United States purchased abroad the goods on the amount of $86 billion more than it sold. The trade deficit is also caused by the fact that heavy and expensive production of the US companies is moved to other countries. Major producers such as China, India and the European Union depend on America. And this dependence will not weaken in the near future.

The largest manufacturer in the world changes the vector of its development from quantitative to qualitative. In 2015, China's GDP growth rate was 6.9%, and it was the worst index in 25 years. In 2016, the Chinese government has set a growth rate of not less than 6.5%. In 2015, the industrial production growth declined from 10% to 6.4%, and foreign investment growth dropped to 13.3% for the first time over 13 years. It will not result in another global economic crisis, but it will significantly affect the suppliers of raw materials China was actively buying from in the years of industrial and investment boom. The transformation of the Chinese economy will have an impact on Laos, Vietnam, the Philippines and other countries, because they will be attractive to investors due to the low cost of production and due to the sufficient amount of inexpensive labor force.

Raw materials will become more inexpensive as a result of the reducing purchasing power of China. In January 2016, Bloomberg Commodities Index, which includes 22 commodities, fell to its lowest level in 25 years. Oil, grains and industrial metals experienced the most significant price reduction. This will negatively influence the economy of Ukraine and other developing countries, the export of which is mainly represented in raw material.

According to IMF forecasts, the Indian economy will grow by 7.3% in 2016, and this number exceeds even the pace of China's growth. India is less technologically advanced compared to China, but it attracts the investors from all over the world due to the large number of cheap labor force. And it becomes even more attractive as in the next 10 years human resources of India will only increase. At the same time, the Indian government is taking all measures to contribute to the business development and attract investments into the country. As for the India's economic growth, it should be expected that it import more commodities. This is another opportunity for Ukraine to increase exports to India.

Migration collapse in 2015 significantly reduced the European Union chances of a quick way out of debt crisis. The aspiration of Great Britain to leave the euro zone economy also negatively influenced the European Union. In 2015, not only the volume of goods export slowed down; domestic market consumption decreased as well. At the same time the rate of unemployment is growing; the average index of unemployment rate is 10.7%. In Spain, the fifth largest EU economy, the unemployment rate in 2015 was 21%.

The rating agency Standard & Poor's predicts the growth of European Union GDP by 1.5% in 2016. Despite the migration and the economic crisis, the European Union is ready to accept new members from the less developed countries. This will allow the euro area to expand markets and attract new investments.

According to UBS Bank forecasts, the growth of Japan's economy grew by 1.3% in 2016 and by 0.8% in 2017. The level of Japanese export is still declining despite the depreciation of the Yuan. Japan is going through a demographic crisis that is associated with the aging of the nation and the decrease in its labor force. Now, the rate of total demographic burden (the ratio of dependents to working-age population) in Japan is high and it constitutes 56.2%. This means that every single working Japanese provides in average for 1.5 dependents. To ensure the country's economy labor force, the Japanese government was forced to simplify the migration policy to attract more migrant workers.

Surprisingly, but experts predict that 2016-2017 years will be favorable for the global economy. Developed countries will finally overcome the residual effects of the economic crisis of 2008. For developing economies that are focused on commodity exports there will be opportunities in the form of new distribution sources.