Three most important trends in the energy sector till 2040

What place fossil and renewable sources will take in the production of energy, what will happen to nuclear power plants and how many people in the world will still live without electricity – all these questions are in the forecasts of the industry.

Energetic sphere will change more slowly than optimists predict. After a couple of decades, we will not ride electric vehicles, charge our smartphones using portable solar panels and live in the homes that receive 100% of electricity from the alternative sources of energy. Despite the active development of solar, wind and geothermal energy, oil, gas and coal will remain the main energy sources by 2040.

Here are three major trends in the energy sector for the next decade.

It is expected that by 2040, the amount of electricity production from renewable sources not related to hydropower, such as the Sun, wind, biomass and geothermal sources, will be increased by 3 times and will be around 17% of the total amount of the produced energy. At the same time, the increase in the average production in developing countries will be higher than in the developed ones: 7.4% vs. 4.6% per year. 

In the next 25 years, 43% of new factories dealing with the production of electricity in Africa, 48% in Asia and 63% in Latin America will work with renewable energy sources. Only in Asia there will appear 1587 of them – almost as much as in the rest of the world during the same period.

Despite this fact, according to the forecasts of the International Energy Agency, by 2040, coal and natural gas will continue to be reliable and affordable sources of energy. Their share in the total amount of electricity production will be 31% and 24% respectively. Oil, as well, will still be important.

About 82% of the population has access to electricity. Since 1990, India has improved the access to electricity by 25% for its residents, while China provides with electricity almost 100% of its population. However, approximately 1.3 billion people, mostly in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, are still without the access to electricity. The development of electricity production from renewable energy sources will reduce this number to 1 billion people by 2030. At the same time, the residents of countries in sub-Saharan Africa will continue to be 3/4 of the total number of the world's population who do not have access to electricity.

Despite the fact that the atomic power stations are one of a few ways to continuously receive electricity without harmful emissions, their share will remain at 12% of the total electricity output by 2040. The main reason is the potential risk of large-scale man-made disasters. In the next 25 years, the energy revolution will not happen. However, the energy sector will evolve in the direction of electricity production from renewable sources, gradually replacing fossil fuels.